Speaker: Kimberly Oremus
Title: Timely Policy Responses Can Save Fisheries from (Some) Temperature Shocks
Abstract: Marine heat extremes are intensifying, straining management systems designed around stable conditions. While biological effects of warming are well-documented, critical knowledge gaps remain regarding when and how policy interventions can accelerate ecological recovery. Here, we develop a temperature-dependent bioeconomic framework that identifies thresholds and quantifies trade-offs between recovery and economic performance in a blue-crab fishery across >11,000 simulated warming and policy scenarios. We find a critical ‘window of intervention’ within which policies effectively accelerate recovery, but beyond which ecological damage overwhelms regulatory capacity. Within this window, protecting reproductive capacity through targeted harvest restrictions consistently outperforms broader closures with more favorable economic outcomes. Outside this thermal threshold, even aggressive interventions prove ineffective. The seasonal timing of warming events determines intervention success, with summer extremes imposing the greatest constraints on management effectiveness. These findings demonstrate that policy cost-effectiveness varies across warming scenarios. Our framework informs how managers can compare different regulatory actions in temperature-sensitive systems.
