Speaker: Hannah Amy Farkas

Title: Unpredictable by design? How wage policy shapes hourly work

Abstract: Workers in hourly service jobs experience shift cancellations, schedule adjustments, and unpredictable hours, often referred to as 'just-in-time' scheduling. Despite imposing significant costs on workers, little is known about the tradeoff between wages and schedule stability. I leverage the fact that most hourly service workers earn at or near the minimum wage to examine this question. Using daily payroll data from thousands of small businesses in the food and retail sectors across the US, I examine how large increases to state-level minimum wages impact the volatility of hourly workers' schedules. Following exogenous wage increases, schedule inaccuracy increases by roughly 45 minutes per week and the overall similarity of week-to-week schedules decreases by 20%. Schedules also become more responsive to a slow business day following the hike. This increase in volatility results in overall costs imposed on workers equivalent to 10-22% of the monetary gains from the wage increase per week.