Speaker: Amir Jina

Title: Human-Centered Forecasting: How AI could transform what we can say about the weather and who can benefit

Abstract: We often take high-quality weather forecasts for granted in high-income countries, but much of the tropics still relies on low-quality forecasts—for both scientific and economic reasons—despite facing high climate risk. Striking recent advances in AI weather models—some outperforming the physics-based models that have formed the backbone of modern weather forecasting for 100 years—offer a path to transform and democratize forecasting in low- and middle-income countries. This talk gives an overview of these developments, highlighting two research projects—an RCT on forecast dissemination and a user-focused approach to benchmarking AI weather models—that guided efforts to scale forecast dissemination with the Indian government to 40 million farmers, the largest targeted AI-based weather outreach to date. I will also discuss the approach and ongoing efforts through AIM for Scale to expand reliable weather forecasting and delivery to an additional 100 million farmers globally.